Sunday, March 9, 2008

I don't remember the draft's order being this cloudy

Since free agency has answered many questions for most of the 32 teams in the NFL, the draft is becoming harder to predict. But you know what, I'll take a stab at it anyways.

Without any further ado, here's MY mock draft (I tried to start one about a month ago, but this one is the real deal):

1. Miami Dolphins-- Chris Long, DE, UVA
Long may not be the sexiest of choices, but the Dolphins don't have any other pass rushers besides an aging Jason Taylor. The New York Giants reminded everybody how important it is to assemble a group that can rush the passer, and with Long being the best 4-3 end available, it would make sense for Miami to choose him.

Chris Long video

2. St. Louis Rams -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

The Rams have a lot of needs, but one of their biggest holes is an interior lineman. Dorsey, whose value has been questioned with the recent acquistion of an injury, should give more inside help to the Rams' defensive line and pair up with Adam Carriker to form the cornerstone of St. Louis' defense for years to come.

Glenn Dorsey video

3. Atlanta Falcons -- Jake Long, LT, Michigan

With Michael Vick, TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn, the Falcons had one of the league's elite rushing attacks. With Dunn and Duckett no longer on the team and Vick in prison, their ability to run the ball has vanished. By signing Michael Turner to team up with Jerious Norwood, all the Falcons need is a good solid line to lead the way, and what better way to do that than draft the most elite offensive line prospect in the draft in Long.

4. Oakland Raiders -- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State

The Raiders resigned Justin Fargas, restructured Dominic Rhodes' contract and still have Michael Bush and Lamont Jordan under contract so I think it's safe to say Oakland will not be seeking out the talent of Arkansas running back Darren McFadden. What the Raiders do need is a playmaker on defense, and Ohio State's Vernon Gholston will be available when the Raiders choose at No. 4. With Chris Clemons leaving to Philadelphia and Warren Sapp retiring, Oakland lost some of its ability to rush the passer, so taking Gholston would only make sense.

Vernon Gholston video 1 (against Jake Long), video 2, video 3

5. Kansas City Chiefs -- Ryan Clady, RT, Boise State

With the Chiefs, I they need bodies--plain and simple. One of the spots they need bodies--and talent-- at is offensive line, because Kansas City relies so much on Larry Johnson and he can't afford to run behind a less-than-adequate offensive line much longer. If the Chiefs do opt to take somebody else, it'll probably be a defensive back but I'd still look for them to address their lack of talent along the line.

6. New York Jets -- Darren McFadden, RB, New York Jets

The Jets addressed their needs at nose tackle, outside linebacker, left guard and right tackle thus far this offseason. Now, the Jets, who still are one difference-making defender away from being a good defensive unit, will be looking to add a playmaker on offense--a guy who will take pressure off of whoever plays quarterback, Thomas Jones, Laveraneus Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. While there are no wide receivers expected to be of top-10 value in this year's draft and the Jets aren't that desperate for a running back, I'd still expect them to take McFadden, who paired with Jones and Leon Washington could form one of the league's best rushing attacks with their newly-revamped offensive line and recently-acquired fullback Tony Richardson.

Darren McFadden video

7. New England Patriots -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy State (from San Francisco)

Good bye Asante Samuel and hello McKelvin! It's either this or a linebacker for the Patriots but most of the prototype 3-4 linebackers aren't expected to be off the board until rounds two-three, so it's likely New England will seek a corner to replace Samuel. The Patriots also like to trade down to acquire more draft picks, but for this mock's sake, I'd say they take McKelvin, whose stock has been improving since having a great workout at the combine and a good display at the senior bowl.

Leodis McKelvin video 1 (3:20), video 2

8. Baltimore Ravens -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

The Ravens tried the same idea about 4-5 years ago with Cal-product Kyle Boller, and with a defense that's still one of the best in the league, Baltimore has to be serious about upgrading the most important position in football. Trying to play without a upper-echelon quarterback has kept this team from possible making 1-2 more trips to the Super Bowl this decade after their 35-7 blowout win against the Giants in 2001. Ryan has played extremely well for the duration of his career at Boston College, and I think he has something going for him that has doomed other quarterbacks--the Awe of the Big Arm. How many times has a quarterback been solely evaluated for his ability to launch a pass 60 yards with ease where as his penchance for leading his team to victory goes completely unnoticed? Ryan has good--not great--arm strength, but his ability to close out a win with his passing with an average cast at Boston College is even more impressive.

Matt Ryan video

9. Cincinnati Bengals --Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

The Bengals foolishly lost out on trading for Shaun Rogers, so getting an interior defensive lineman should be a priority for a Cincinnati team that has had trouble stopping the run for almost 18 years. Ellis never gives up on a play despite his girth, so his high-motor intensity may have an impact on the rest of the Bengals' defensive line.

Sedrick Ellis video 1, video 2 (senior bowl)

10. New Orleans Saints --Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

Unlike last year when the Saints foolishly picked up an offensive player in the first round with Robert Meachem, it's highly unlikely New Orleans will do the same in 2008. The defense continues to be the weak unit on this team, so the Saints are expected to get a defender. Linebacker doens't appear to be that much of a need after acquiring Jonathan Vilma and the often-injured Dan Morgan, so their uprgrade will probably come at defensive tackle, safety or cornerback. I say they go safety, as their is only one prime prospect at that position in Kenny Phillips. The draft is deep at cornerback and defensive tackle, plus the Saints still have Mike McKenzie (although his play is dropping by the year), second-year player Usama Young and the newly-acquired Randall Gay, who should see that Jason David isn't on the field as much. Adding a talented safety like Phillips can only upgrade a Saints safety corps that doesn't include a difference-maker.

Kenny Phillips video 1, video 2

11. Buffalo Bills --Early Doucet, WR, LSU

I say there's a good chance Doucet won't end up being like the last LSU receiver Buffalo drafted in Josh Reed. Doucet is a big, strong target who runs good routes and has great hands catching the ball away from his body and should provide a tall target to compliment the small but speedy Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish. The Bills are a couple of players away from being a playoff team, and Doucet should improve the progression of Trent Edwards, giving him a viable option on crossing routes over the middle.

Early Doucet video 1, video 2, video 3, video 4

12. Denver Broncos -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

Let's just be honest--Denver's defense just sucked last season. When they needed a stop on 3-and-5, they'd let up 15 yards and if it was 1st-and-10, they'd still give up 10-plus yards. Cornerback Dre Bly didn't play up to expectations after Denver traded for him from Detroit, although they didn't give up much in return for him (look at RT George Foster and RB Tatum Bell). Denver has always loved speed at linebacker since Mike Shanahan has been patrolling the field for the Broncos, so Keith Rivers is their man to team with DJ Williams.

Keith Rivers video 1

13. Carolina Panthers -- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

The only mainstay from Carolina's fierce defensive line from their Super Bowl run in 2002 is Julius Peppers. Kris Jenkins is now a Jet while Mike Rucker and Brenston Buckner's production has disappeared into the night. Peppers needs help along that line, and getting local product Balmer will be a priority for the Panthers.

14. Chicago Bears -- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

He's big, fast and has hands like cushions. Sweed, despite nursing a wrist injury, has a lot of upside and will definitely be taken by a team needy for a wide receiver, and perhaps no team like the Bears is as needy for a WR. After watching Muhsin Muhammed and Bernard Berrian leave, the Bears are left with Mark Bradley, Devin Hester and Rashied Davis--all possess a lot of speed, but it hasn't been seen where these guys can be counted on in the clutch. It's almost like a toss-up in this slot, because the Bears could opt to go for another wide out, but I say Sweed's size, quickness and ability to produce at a high level in the Big 12 gets the Bears to pull the trigger on him.

Limas Sweed video 1, video 2

15. Detroit Lions -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

At least we know the Lions won't be gunning for a wide reciever this draft. What Detroit will be gunning for is a defender. The Lions just signed Tampa Bay-castoff Brian Kelly as a potential starter a corner, and I'd expect the Lions to pick up another potential starter at the same position in Mike Jenkins. Jenksin and SFU put themselves on the map after rising as high as No. 2 in the nation during last year's wacky college football season, and his skills were displayed to a national audience as he, George Selvie and Ben Moffit proved there is upper-echelon talent on the Bulls' roster.

Mike Jenkins video 1

16. Arizona Cardinals -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

There's nothing more Ken Whisenhunt wants in this year's draft than a big, nasty tackle to make lanes for whoever totes the rock for Arizona. You could argue that Arizona might go running back at No. 16 with Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart on the board while starter Edgerrin James is closing in on that age where running backs typically experience a decline in their play. However, if they want to give their running game and quarterback a chance, they have to solidify themselves upfront with talent, as they did last year with Levi Brown. Expect the Cardinals to be a tad tougher next year if they opt to go with Otah.

17. Minnesota Vikings -- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

I might change this if Minnesota does work out a trade for JP Losman, but if they don't, I'm thinking there's no way Brad Childress will let a quartberback whom many thought was going to win the heismann slip by him and be stuck with Tarvaris Jackson as the only option for a starter in 2008. Brohm has run an offense similar to Childress' quick-strike passing game at Louisville, so maybe he could mold Brohm into the type of dynamic passer that Donovan McNabb has become.

Video of Brian Brohm

18. Houston Texans -- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

The only bright light in Illinois' 49-17 embarrasment to USC, Mendenhall proved to be an exceptional back in 2007 as he ran for 100 yards in 13 games and went over the 150 yard-mark in six of those performances. With prototype size (5'11", 220 lbs) for a running back, Mendenhall could provide the Texans the type of feature back they haven't had since Domanik Davis (oops, I mean Williams) changed his name.

Rashard Mendenhall video 1, video 2

19. Philadelphia Eagles -- Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

Depending on whether they get Larry Fitzgerald or Torry Holt via trade, the Eagles will be looking for an upgrade at wide receiver. Now, I'm not saying Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, who had a fine first-season with the Eagles, aren't good players, but Philly is one good playmaker away from making another deep run in the playoffs. I know Andy Reid will not draft a running back in the first round (being that they already have one of the league's best in Brian Westbrook and the fact that they have never done that since Reid's arrival), and so WR Malcom Kelly remains the only option that makes sense. Like Sweed, he's a big, speedy target who's got great hands and dominated the Big 12 last season while playing with a freshman at quartberback. For their sake, they better hope he doesn't end up like the former self-proclaimed "People's Champ" and become Philly's Chump.

Malcolm Kelly video 1, video 2, video 3

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

Suprirse, Surprise, Tampa goes defense. However, it's a must for the Bucs to get younger on defense because most of their veterans from their 2003 run are declining (except Derrick Brooks, who's still as fantastic as ever). Talib has the skill set to play in the Bucs' cover-2 defense and he's got good size (6'2", 205 lbs) for a corner.

Aqib Talib video 1, video 2, video 3


21. Washington Redskins -- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

In 2006, the Redskins were one of the worst teams rushing the passer, but in 2007, Andre Carter finally decided to actually be worth the monster contract the team gave him. How much longer can Carter keep up his inspired play? Who knows, but Washington does need a difference-maker at defensive end and wide receiver, as Antwan Randle-El hasn't proved to be anything more than a very rich slot receiver (83 catches and four touchdowns in two seasons as their No. 2 WR). With no more wide receivers with first-round grades left, the Redskins still have a talented group of defensive ends to pick from, and I think they'll take Derrick Harvey. Harvey is a good 4-3 end and proved he was stronger than most thought after posting 31 reps at the combine.

Derrick Harvey video (2:33-2:40)

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) -- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

Out goes one Jones and in comes another. After letting (and I use that term loosely) Julius Jones shop his services elsewhere and landing in Seattle, the Cowboys will need another back to compliment Marion the Barbarian. Now, I'm not saying Felix goes to the Cowboys because he's an Arkansas guy and that he shares the same alma mater as Dallas owner Jerry Jones but only because he's the only top-line running back that's a shifty-speed type back left on the board. Having another power back like Jonathan Stewart wouldn't make sense because they already have a guy like that in Barber, so I expect Dallas to try to create their own version of Thunder and Lighthing.

Felix Jones video

23. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

Pittsburgh loves those gigantic defensive ends, and perhaps there's no DE bigger in this draft than Campbell (6'8", 280 lbs). Instead of trying to make Campbell a pass-rush master, the Steelers will look to make him a two-gap plugger in the mold of Aaron Smith (who, by the way, gained 100 lbs between his last game and the draft to make it to the NFL). Although his senior season wasn't as good as some expected, Campbell will be looked upon to make the Steelers' defenisve line even more sturdy.

Calais Campbell video

24. Tennessee Titans -- DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal

Although not as flashy and big-play oriented, the Titans found their replacement for Pacman Jones in Michael Griffin last spring. This year, the Titans should look to replace some of the talent that jettisoned during this year's free agency. Tennessee has a bevy of big-bodied receivers after adding TE Alge Crumpler, so getting DeSean Jackson would bring speed to their passing game and return units. Jackson ran a 4.35 at the combine and made Pac-10 defenses and special team units look silly from 2006-2007 and could be what Ted Ginn Jr. was not in his rookie season--an impact player.

DeShaun Jackson video

25. Seattle Seahawks -- Chris Williams, LT, Vanderbilt

Seattle's need for a running back has been completely eliminated after they signed Julius Jones and TJ Duckett. Now Seattle has a little more freedom in regards to their draft--instead of drafting based on need, the Seahawks can now accumulate depth at any position. One position the Seahawks could afford to reach for is tight end, as Purdue Boilermaker Dustin Keller heads the class for 2008. However, I expect them to take Vanderbilt's Chris Williams so that they can groom an eventual replacement for the stellar Walter Jones.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Dan Connor, MLB, Penn State

When healthy, Mike Peterson is as good as a middle linebacker out there. However, his ability to stay on the field in recent seasons has hindered the Jaguars' defense lately. By getting Connor, the Jaguars get a toughy, heady linebacker who has the athelticism to make plays in the box and on the perimeter.

Dan Connor video 1, video 2

27. San Diego Chargers -- Gosder Cherilus, RT, Boston College

The Chargers don't have many holes to fill on their team other than a backup for LaDanian Tomlinson and a right tackle, and since San Diego is in position to take Boston College right tackle Gosder Cherilus, they'll most likely fill one of their two gaps. The 6-foot-7, 315 pound Cherilus made the way for running back Andre Callender and kept rushers off of Matt Ryan's back, and he'll expected to do the same for LT and Philip Rivers.

28. Dallas Cowboys -- Dominque Rogers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

The Cowboys have this small-school athletic phenom fall all the way to them at No. 28 as prospects from higher-ranked programs go off the board. Rogers Cromartie has displayed phenomenal ability to make plays on jump balls, in the return game and closing speed on passes and receivers. The Cowboys will be looking for an eventual replacement for Terrance Newman and Anthony Henry, and with Rogers-Cromartie Dallas has the liberty of working him slowly into the line up without forcing him to start in week 1 right away.

29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) -- Frank Okam, DT, Texas

With the retirement of Bryant Young, the Niners will look to improve their defensive line. Okam has been accused of being lazy and taking plays off during his Longhorn career, which explains why he's slipped all the way to No. 29. But, the Niners are building to make a run at the Seahawks right now, and they can't afford to force Patrick Willis to be the only playmaker in the middle of their defense. Okam is the type of player that will allow the Niners to him start right away as they are in a win-now mode after spending big bucks this and last year's offseason.

30. Green Bay -- Dre Moore, DT, Maryland

Losing Corey Williams to the Browns left a void at defensive tackle that the Packers will try to fill on draft day with Moore, who had a solid end to his senior year at Maryland and posted a good workout at the combine. The Packers took Tennessee's Justin Harrell in the first round last year, and I'd expect them to go the same route this season.

31. New England (FORFEITED)

32. New York Giants -- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

Although he's a top-3 end on most experts' big boards, Merling could possibly slip even further than the latter part of the first round. The Giants love pass rushers, and securing themself Gaines Adams' former partner-in-crime will give the Giants more options to deploy against opposing quarterbacks.

0 comments: